Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors.

Key Supports

• Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079

• Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major)

Key Resistances

• Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major).

• Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major)

Trading Strategy

• Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts.

• Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management.

• Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached.

• Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts.

• Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.

Bull Case

• Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom.

Bear Case

• Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way.

News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024

• Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty.

Economic Outlook

• IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease.

• US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends.

Inflation & Fed Rates

• CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.

• Treasury yields react to inflation data.

Corporate & Market News

• Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs.

• Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns.

• Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies.

Investment Outlooks

• Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions.

• Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in.

Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.