Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18, 2024

SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESM2024 & SPY ETF - Market Update

Author

Jonathan
April 18, 2024

Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.

Key Supports

  • Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054

  • Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major)

Key Resistances

  • Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major)

  • Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major)

Trading Strategy

  • Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move.

  • Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.

  • Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037.

  • Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.

Bull Case

  • Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20.

  • Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength.

  • Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.

Bear Case

  • Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.

News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024

Economic Environment

  • Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis.

  • Corporate profits show resilience.

  • Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.

  • Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.

Global Markets

  • IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing.

Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.