Trading Plan for Monday, April 22, 2024

Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024

Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial.

Key Supports

• Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966

• Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major)

Key Resistances

• Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major)

• Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major)

Trading Strategy

• Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact.

• Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol.

• Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets.

• Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.

Bull Case

• Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt.

• Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce.

• Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection.

Bear Case

• Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking.

News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024

Economic Environment

• IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing.

• Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector.

• Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends.

• Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China.

Market Focus

• Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors.

• Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving.

Additional Market News

• Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports.

• Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning.

Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!