Trading Plan for Monday, April 15, 2024

Trading Plan for Monday, April 15th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Highly uncertain due to major geopolitical headline risk over the weekend. Expect significant volatility and potential for large gaps up or down at the Sunday open.

Important Note: The escalating tension between Iran and Israel has the potential to cause significant market disruptions. BE PREPARED for a wide range of outcomes, substantial gaps on the open, and rapidly changing market conditions.

Key Supports

• Immediate Supports: 5163 (major), 5155, 5142, 5134-36 (major), 5126 (major)

• Major Supports: 5120, 5115, 5108, 5102-5097 (major), 5091, 5082 (major)

Key Resistances

• Near-term Resistance: 5177 (major), 5185, 5192-95 (major), 5203 (major)

• Major Resistances: 5218 (major), 5228-30 (major), 5245 (major), 5262

Trading Strategy

• Weekend Headlines: Be prepared for anything related to the Iran/Israel situation. This news will dominate market reaction.

• Adaptability is Key: Market conditions could change rapidly, prioritize flexibility and risk management.

• Sunday Open: Focus on how the market opens and reacts to the news. Large gaps are possible in either direction.

• Long Opportunities: Due to the high risk, only consider longs after the initial reaction and if a stable support zone forms. Potential bids at 5163, reclaiming 5155, or (depending on the open) reclaiming 5177. Emphasis on failed breakdowns.

• Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of any breakdown levels if a strong sell-off occurs. Potentially 5177, 5219, or 5228 if those levels are reached.

• Knife-Catch Mode: If necessary, use the knife-catch protocol for longs, with small size and emphasis on failed-breakdowns.

Bull Case

• De-escalation: A move towards de-escalation or resolution of the Iran situation could lead to a sharp rebound.

• Reclaiming 5177: If 5177 is reclaimed with acceptance above, bulls may drive a recovery towards targets of 5195, 5202, 5219.

Bear Case

• Escalation of Conflict: Continued escalation of tensions could lead to a significant market sell-off.

• Breakdown of 5163: A failure of 5163 opens up downside targets. Watch for a bounce/failed breakdown, then consider shorting for a move down the levels.

News: Top Stories for April 15th, 2024

Geopolitical Crisis:

• Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel dominate headlines and overshadow all other news.

• Potential repercussions for the global economy, oil prices, and markets.

Impact on Market Outlook:

• Uncertainty and volatility dominate the April outlook.

• Key economic dates and reports may be less impactful given the news focus.

Earnings Reports:

• Earnings season continues, but market focus may be diverted by the geopolitical situation.

Other Market and Economic News:

• Monitor secondary news sources for updates on the Iran/Israel situation and potential market impacts.

Reminder: The weekend geopolitical developments introduce extreme uncertainty into the markets. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to quickly adapt your trading strategy.