Trading Plan for Friday, April 4th, 2024

Trading Plan for Friday, April 5th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Extreme volatility expected due to the recent selloff and NFP data release. Caution and adaptability are crucial.

Important Note: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) was released at 8:30 AM (EST). Expect outsized moves and volatility. Avoid predictions, and look for failed breakdowns as potential trade entry points.

Key Supports

• Immediate Supports: 5203, 5196, 5190, 5181-84 (major), 5177, 5171 (major), 5163, 5155 (major), 5146, 5142 (major), 5136, 5127 (major), 5115, 5102 (major).

• Major Supports: 5171, 5142 (important for long positions), and 5102 (major).

Key Resistances

• Near-term Resistance: 5212 (major), 5221 (major), 5230, 5235, 5240 (major), 5250, 5257, 5266 (major), 5274, 5279, 5288 (major), 5294 (major), 5302.

• Major Resistances: 5257, 5266 (major), 5288 (major), and 5310 (major).

Trading Strategy

• Knife-Catch Mode: Exercise extreme caution and use small position sizes. Longs ONLY at major supports, prioritizing 5181-84, 5171, and especially 5142. Consider longs after a failed breakdown and reclaim.

• Bullish Reclaims: If bulls regain 5212, watch for acceptance above this level before adding longs. Target level-to-level profits.

• Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of the 5235-40 zone as potential shorting areas, as it hasn't been fully retested from below.

Bull Case

• Support Holds: Bulls need to reclaim 5241 to maintain control and set the low. Moves towards 5265 and 5288 are possible if this occurs. Short-term, reclaiming 5212 is essential.

• Downside Magnet: If bulls make a strong move, 5143 is a significant downside target to watch.

Bear Case

• Resistance Rejections: If bulls fail to retake 5212, expect a retest and rejection. This could open up a move towards 5194 for potential short entries (only if a bear flag establishes between 5212-5196).

News: Top Stories for April 5th, 2024

U.S. Jobs Report

• Strong March jobs report with 303,000 positions added.

• Unemployment rate down to 3.8% shows continued labor market resilience.

• Impact on Fed's rate decisions uncertain, as wage growth easing.

Corporate News

• Johnson & Johnson's $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical announced.

• Updates on Telecom Italia financing and China Oilfield Services operations.

Market Performance

• S&P 500 hits all-time highs in March, strong Q1.

• Nasdaq-100 projections point to good performance for 2024, with specific stock highlights.

Global Economic Indicators

• Japan monitors volatile Yen movements.

• Disappointing German factory data raises slowdown concerns.

• India's strong economy leads to stable interest rates.

Energy Sector

• Oil dividend stock recommendations for April.

• Shell's gas output exceeds guidance.

Monetary Policy & Inflation

• Fed remains inflation-focused, considering mid-2024 rate cut.

• Developed market inflation expected to ease toward 2024 end.

Geopolitical Concerns

• Questions emerge about reliance on U.S. nuclear capabilities.

• U.S. strategic moves in managing China's growing power.

Technology & Disinformation

• Chinese AI-powered campaigns targeting U.S. voters & Taiwan.

Market Outlook

• J.P. Morgan sees a challenging 2024 ahead due to economic slowdown potential.

• Overall positive 2024 outlook for U.S. stocks, experts discuss valuations and rate forecasts.

Reminder: Expect high volatility tomorrow due to NFP data and the recent sell-off. Adapt your trading size accordingly (1/4 size recommended). Focus on reacting to price action over any predictions.