Trading Plan for Friday, April 19, 2024

SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESM2024 & SPY ETF - Market Update

Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone. A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move.

Key Supports

  • Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033

  • Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major)

Key Resistances

  • Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major)

  • Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major)

Trading Strategy

  • Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move.

  • Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs.

  • Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013.

  • Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.

Bull Case

  • Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control.

  • Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained.

  • Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions.

Bear Case

  • Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting.

News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024

Economic Environment

  • Inflation remains a factor despite a decline.

  • Corporate profits show resilience.

  • Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US.

  • Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news.

Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.