3/13 Wednesday Trading Plan

SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESH2024 & SPY ETF - Market Update

Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 13th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish

Weekly Volatility Risk: High

Supports to Watch:

  • Immediate Supports: 5235, 5230, 5221 (major), 5214, 5207 (major), 5202, 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5175 (major), 5167, 5162, 5155 (major), 5148 (major), 5137 (major), 5125, 5115 (major), 5109, 5103, 5097, 5090 (major), 5082, 5077-80 (major), 5070, 5060 (Major), 5056, 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5026, 5018-20 (major), 5012, 5000 (major), 4990, 4982 (major).

Resistances to Monitor:

  • Key Resistances: 5242 (major), 5254, 5257, 5274-78 (major), 5283, 5290 (major), 5297, 5309, 5315, 5326 (major), 5331, 5341, 5345, 5355 (major), 5366 (major).

Trading Strategy:

  • Post Trend-Leg Caution: After the significant rally, short-term setups are less clear. Exercise caution with both longs (chasing, rug pull risk) and shorts (against the dominant trend). Let price discovery unfold before forcing trades.

  • Support Focus: Watch for potential long opportunities at 5235, 5221, and particularly 5207. Look for reclaims or failed breakdown setups for stronger entries.

  • Short Opportunities (For experienced traders): Consider shorts on confirmed breakdowns below 5207 or bounces off the 5274-78, and 5290 resistance areas.

  • Patience is Key: Prioritize capital preservation and wait for high-conviction entries.

Bull Case:

  • Trend Continuation: The overall bull trend remains strong. Defending 5220 and 5207 supports paves the way towards new highs at 5254, 5274-78, and the 5290 macro magnet.

  • Adding within Flags: Monitor for potential bull flags overnight between 5242 and 5230. Consider adding positions within a well-formed flag if a major new high is not made.

Bear Case:

  • Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5207 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns, ideally after a bounce.

News: Top Stories for March 13th, 2024

  • Economic Outlook: Despite President Biden's cautious economic forecasts in November, recent progress suggests a stronger outlook. Economists are predicting faster growth, lower inflation, and continued job creation.

  • Housing Initiatives: President Biden's proposed initiatives to reduce housing costs aim to ease affordability challenges caused by inflation and high-interest rates.

  • Cryptocurrency Trends: Meme coins are surging, while electric vehicle stocks see mixed analyst opinions highlighting the volatility of these sectors.

  • Gold's Safe Haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the record-high gold price reflects its appeal as a safe-haven investment.

  • Interest Rate Debate: Speculation continues around the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.