3/11 Monday Trading Plan

SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESH2024 & SPY ETF - Market Update

Author

Jonathan
March 11, 2024

Trading Plan for Monday, March 11th, 2024

Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish

Weekly Volatility Risk: High

Supports to Watch:

  • Immediate Supports: 5196, 5187 (major), 5181, 5176, 5168 (major), 5163 (major), 5155, 5147, 5140, 5136, 5131, 5126 (major), 5116, 5108, 5103, 5095, 5090 (major), 5084 (major), 5076, 5072 (major).

Resistances to Monitor:

  • Key Resistances: 5205 (major), 5211, 5220 (major), 5232, 5241 (major), 5254, 5262 (major), 5270-73 (major), 5280, 5290 (major), 5296, 5309 (major), 5326, 5330 (major), 5348, 5359, 5366, 5377 (major)

Trading Strategy:

  • Cautious Trading: The early week dip suggests a more cautious approach for Monday's trading. Err on the side of capital preservation by limiting aggressive trades.

  • Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at major support levels, particularly 5187, 5168-63, and 5126.

  • Counter-trend Cautions: (For experienced traders) Be aware of potential short opportunities at resistances like 5262 and 5241, but remember the overall bull trend remains in force.

Bull Case:

  • Trend Continuation: The overall bull market is still dominant. Defending 5187 (and ideally 5163) supports would signal that another leg up is likely, targeting 5262+.

  • Adding on Strength: Monitor reclaims of 5211 for potential long entries.

Bear Case:

  • Breakdown Signals: A decisive break below 5187, particularly a failed breakdown, could trigger a move down the levels. Watch for shorting opportunities on confirmed breakdowns.

News: Top Stories for March 11th, 2024

  • Stock Market Strength: The S&P 500 continues its record-breaking run, with a strong 7.11% return year-to-date.

  • AI Drives Tech Boom: AI stocks, led by Nvidia's impressive earnings, are boosting the technology sector.

  • Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates are a key focus as investors anticipate potential cuts in late 2024.

  • US Economic Picture: The latest GDP growth projections suggest a potential slowdown, but strong earnings and market momentum are positive indicators.

  • Global Outlook: The IMF's upward revision of global growth forecasts points to a return to normal growth levels.

  • Regulatory Updates: Fed officials are planning new rules to prevent banking crises, and the finalization of Basel III could have significant implications for the sector.

Additional Considerations:

  • Historical Trends: Historically, a strong January and February for the S&P 500 tend to foreshadow continued gains over the following 12 months.

  • Inflation Expectations: Monitor potential for a rebounding inflation rate later in the year.