2/29 Thursday Trading Plan

Market Sentiment: Neutral

Indian and Global Market Updates

• Mixed Indian Indices in Early Trading: The BSE Sensex and Nifty oscillated between gains and losses in a volatile morning session, mirroring muted global market cues and today's monthly derivatives expiry.

• Reliance Industries, Maruti, and Others Lead Gains: Reliance Industries, Maruti, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, and State Bank of India were among the top gainers on the Sensex.

• Lagging Behind: Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the stocks underperforming.

Economic Outlook and Indicators

• Elevated Recession Risk: Economist David Rosenberg warns of an 85% chance of a US recession in 2024, a high probability not seen since the 2008 crisis. His forecast is informed by a combination of financial conditions, debt-service ratios, foreign term spreads, and yield curve dynamics.

• Bitcoin Soars: Bitcoin has reached record highs in Australian dollars and is closing in on an all-time US dollar high, driven by bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

• UK Economic Indicators Updated: Real-time indicators such as flight activity and London traffic data, as well as online job advert indices and automotive fuel spending insights, provide an update on the UK economy.

• US Growth Forecast Revised Upward: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model increased its first-quarter 2024 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2%, up from 2.9% previously.

• Data Revisions Announced: The US Census Bureau has informed that revisions will be made to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates released in March and April 2024, respectively.

News Highlights

• Real Estate, Consumer Cyclicals, and Tech Advance: The real estate sector outperformed, followed by consumer cyclicals and technology, while utilities were the only sector showing losses.

• Electronic Arts Announces Layoffs: Electronic Arts (EA) is cutting around 5% of its workforce and ending development on select video games.

• Oprah Winfrey Exits WW International: Oprah Winfrey will step down from the board of WW International (former Weight Watchers) and plans to sell her stake in the company.

• OpenAI Under SEC Investigation: The SEC is investigating possible misrepresentation to OpenAI investors, examining CEO Sam Altman's internal communications.

• Oil Prices Dip Slightly: The global oil benchmark, Brent crude, saw a slight decline of 0.17% to $83.54 per barrel.

Trading Plan for Thursday

Supports to Watch:

• Immediate Supports: 5074 (major), 5066, 5058, 5052 (major), 5040-42 (major), 5028-30 (major), 5018, 5013 (major), 5009, 4999 (major), 4988, 4981-83 (major), 4971, 4964, 4955-59 (major).

Resistances to Monitor:

• Key Resistances: 5079 (major), 5087 (major), 5093, 5098, 5102, 5106-08 (major), 5113, 5118 (major), 5128, 5134-36 (major), 5142, 5150-52 (major), 5156, 5163, 5168-70, 5176 (major), 5182, 5190, 5195-5200 (major), 5209 (major), 5217, 5225 (major), 5230, 5235 (major).

Trading Strategy:

• Range-Bound Market: The current market exhibits choppy, range-bound behavior. Exercise caution and focus on well-defined support and resistance levels to determine potential long or short entry points.

• Inverse H&S Pattern in Play: An inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed since Monday's afternoon low, with 5074 as the neckline. Monitor this structure for potential directional clues, but acknowledge patterns offer only slight probability edges.

• Disciplined Trading: Employ a disciplined trading strategy, including planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when testing significant support and resistance areas to manage potential market volatility.

Disclaimer: Remember, this analysis serves an educational purpose; it should not be taken as financial advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.