2/19-2/20 Monday and Tuesday Trading Plan

📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish

Vanguard's Economic Outlook:

• U.S. Consumer Health: Entering 2024, U.S. consumers remain financially healthy, potentially bolstering or stabilizing economic growth despite recession risks.

S&P 500 Earnings Growth:

• Earnings Expectations: Wall Street's anticipation of double-digit earnings growth in 2024 and 2025, with the risk of market corrections if these expectations are not met.

Stock Market Performance:

• Bullish Momentum: The S&P 500's continued growth into January 2024, reaching new highs amid a robust U.S. economy and mixed earnings reports.

Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook:

• Speculation on Rate Cuts: Market optimism for potential Fed rate cuts in 2024, tempered by analysts' caution over premature expectations.

Tech Stock Valuations:

• Sustainability Concerns: Warnings about the sustainability of gains in major technology stocks, given their valuations.

S&P 500 Milestone:

• Historic High: The index breaking above 5,000, signaling investor optimism and potential for further gains.

Asian Currencies and Fed Rate Cuts:

• Currency Impacts: Potential benefits for certain Asian currencies from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

France's Economic Growth Outlook:

• Growth Revision: France's lowered economic growth outlook for 2024, with implications for President Macron's economic strategy.

European Banks' Profits:

• Record Profits: European banks' profits exceeding €100 billion, largely benefiting from rising interest rates.

Regulatory Actions:

• Property and Tech Regulations: Expected UK curbs on short-term property rentals and EU fines on Apple, reflecting regulatory trends.

📈 Trading Plan for Monday/Tuesday:

Support Levels to Watch:

• Critical Supports: 5016-18 and 4998, serving as pivotal points for market stability and potential shifts.

Resistance Levels to Watch:

• Key Resistances: 5046-48 and 5055-58, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of sentiment shifts.

Trading Strategy:

• Holiday Session Caution: Emphasis on cautious trading during low volume holiday sessions, with a focus on capital preservation and disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels.

Tactics:

• Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market dynamics, especially in light of holiday sessions.

🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.