12/8 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead

📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish

The current market sentiment is bullish, as indicated by various key factors. The closing prices are consistently above the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 9, 21, and 55 periods in both the 4-hour and daily datasets, highlighting a positive trend. Additionally, the market is maintaining levels above key support zones while approaching significant resistance levels. This bullish sentiment is further supported by global market trends, with most markets showing upward movement, robust crude oil prices, and strong yield performances.

🔄 Market Recap

November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize.

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Up

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month.

📷 Snapshot

Daily

Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:

• _EMA 9, 21, 55: Similar to the 4-hour data, the daily data also shows a bullish sentiment with closing prices above the EMAs.

• Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, similar to the 4-hour data, and the closest resistance level is at 4632.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

4-Hour

4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: All are indicating a bullish sentiment as the closing prices are above these EMAs.

• Closest Support and Resistance: The closest support level is at 4580, and the closest resistance level is at 4642.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

🔍 Key Resistance Levels:

1. 4755: A significant long-term target connecting August 2022 and July 2023 highs. It's a major magnet/target in the current market context.

2. 4680-4685: Represents a re-test or slight overthrow of the August highs. It's crucial for validating the strength of the bullish trend.

3. 4658: A critical resistance level that was tested on June 20th and July 25th, 2023. Previous failures to sustainably clear this zone led to a correction, making it the first major breakout zone above 4620-4625.

4. 4642-4645: A key zone in the current market structure.

5. 4620-4625: This represents the upper green dotted line in the chart, connecting the January 2022 COVID bull market high with the August 2022 high. This level was a target for some time and is now more likely to be breached due to significant basing.

🔍 Key Support Levels:

1. 4573 (and 4580): This zone capped rallies in the last week and a half, with multiple failed attempts to clear it. It's seen as a significant 2-week resistance cluster now turned into support.

2. 4556-4558: A key zone tested multiple times (32 times in the last week), indicating a range of choppy trading between 4556 and 4580.

3. 4540-4542: A multi-month level, it was key resistance in June and July 2023, and following a breakout, it has been acting as support.

4. 4514: An important zone from mid-November.

5. 4497: Serves as major support, back-testing the channel resistance dating back to highs of December 2022 and February 2023.

6. 4450: The immediate backtest point of the line after the CPI announcement on November 14th.

📉 Support Levels

4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major)

📈 Resistance Levels

4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major)

📝 Trading Plan

Bullish Scenario: If the market sustains above key support levels and breaches resistance levels, especially 4620-4625 and 4658, the bullish breakout trend may continue.

Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, particularly below 4556, could indicate weakening of the bullish sentiment, leading to a potential bearish shift.

💡 Wrap Up

The market is showing bullish sentiment, but vigilance is key. Monitor resistance and support levels for changes in market dynamics.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.