12/7 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead

📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral

The immediate market conditions lack a strong bullish drive, thus leaning towards neutrality in the short term.

🔄 Market Recap

November proved to be a bullish month, with the ES rallying over 450 points, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, since November 20th, ES has been in a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range of 4550-56 to 4575-80. Despite repeated tests of this range, a definitive breakout has yet to materialize.

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down slightly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Mixed

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

A ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one lane of the two-lane section and reducing transits by more than 50%. It’s since been cleared but the situation highlights ongoing difficulties in global shipping.

📷 Snapshot

Daily

4-Hour

🔍 Key Structures

• 4755: A long-term target, connecting the August 2022 and July 2023 highs.

• 4680: Represents a re-test of the August highs.

• 4658: Crucial resistance encountered in mid-2023.

• 4639-42: A pivotal zone.

• 4618-22: The green dotted line on the chart, marks a significant trendline.

• 4573 (with 4580 just above): A two-week resistance cluster.

• 4556: A repeatedly tested support level.

• 4539-42: A notable horizontal zone, acting as a key resistance in mid-2023.

• 4520: A significant level from mid-November.

• 4497: A channel resistance tracing back to late 2022.

• 4450: The immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement in November.

• 4430: The bull market trendline from late 2022 to early 2023.

📉 Support Levels

4556 (major), 4548, 4539-42 (major), 4530, 4524, 4520 (major), 4512, 4507, 4496 (major), 4485, 4475, 4463 (major), 4450 (major), 4443, 4436, 4431 (major), 4418, 4414, 4408 (major), 4399, 4389 (major)

📈 Resistance Levels

4565, 4573 (major), 4580 (major), 4590-93 (major), 4597, 4609, 4618-22 (major), 4633, 4640-42 (major), 4648, 4657 (major), 4666, 4680-84 (major), 4693, 4704, 4711 (major), 4722, 4727 (major), 4739-41, 4747, 4755 (major)

📝 Trading Plan

Bullish Scenario: Maintain a long position as long as the 4556 support holds. Key supports at 4556 and 4539-42 safeguarding the upward trajectory.

Bearish Scenario: Prepare for a bearish shift if support at 4556 or 4542 fails. This scenario would involve breakdown trades below these support levels, with a high risk-reward ratio and the potential for substantial sell-offs.

💡 Wrap Up

As long as the support levels at 4556 (with the lowest being 4542-39) are maintained, there's potential for the ES to continue operating within its current range and possibly revisit levels like 4573, 4580, then dip to 4590, followed by another dip, before potentially approaching the vicinity of 4620. If the 4542 level fails, we might see the ES embarking on a downward trajectory, moving from one level to the next.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.