12/17 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Monday Trading Plan

📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish

The market has been on a steady upward trend, with the March ES contract rolling from December front month to March. The key support and resistance levels have been identified, focusing on the 4756-58 to 4786 range.

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

The discovery of a large tunnel near the Gaza border by Israel has sparked concerns about the adequacy of its prewar intelligence. In the U.S., the Biden campaign has sharply criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric, comparing it to Adolf Hitler. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair has cautioned against irrational market optimism despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. As inflation shows signs of decline, there's skepticism about whether corporate America will lower prices. Meanwhile, stock futures remain stable following a seven-week rally in major market averages.

📷 Snapshot

Daily

Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

4-Hour

4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

📉 Support Levels

• Major: 4770-72, 4766, 4756-58, 4750, 4743, 4731-34, 4724, 4719, 4704-08, 4699, 4692, 4687, 4683, 4678, 4674, 4764-66, 4660, 4654, 4647, 4644.

• Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670.

📈 Resistance Levels

• Major: 4776, 4781-83, 4786, 4794, 4808-10, 4817, 4826, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4871, 4877, 4883, 4900-05, 4920, 4925, 4933, 4945, 4953, 4963, 4975, 4985-90, 5002.

• Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838.

📝 Trading Plan

• Bull Case Analysis

  • Recent Trend: The S&P 500 futures (ES) maintain a bullish momentum with 7 consecutive green weeks.

  • Premise: Expecting further uptrend, consolidating within the 4756-4786 range.

  • Key Zone: 4756-58, critical for bulls. Watch for consolidation and potential breakout towards 4808-10.

  • Strategy: Bulls anticipate a continuation pattern within this range, eyeing a push to higher resistance levels.

  • Risk Factors: Key risk includes a breakdown below 4756, leading to potential backtest towards lower supports.

• Bear Case Analysis

  • Premise: Potential for a downturn if key support at 4756 is breached.

  • Target Short Entry: Around 4752 post-breakdown of 4756.

  • Profit Targets: Aim for 4740-43 and lower if the breakdown occurs.

  • Strategy: High-risk/reward breakdown trades; caution advised due to their challenging nature.

  • Execution: Avoid impulsive trades; focus on clear setups and key levels.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.