12/11 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day Ahead

📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish

Both the 4-hour and daily data indicate a bullish sentiment for the S&P 500 Index Futures, with closing prices consistently above the 9, 21, and 55 EMAs.

🔄 Market Recap

Last Thursday's rally from 4556 to 4590 occurred on a textbook failed breakdown. This was followed by another squeeze after the NFP release last Friday, due to yet another failed breakdown. The market exhibited a strong performance with closing prices maintaining above key EMA levels, indicating sustained bullish momentum. This trend was consistent across both the daily and 4-hour charts.

📈 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mostly up, Japan down a lot
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Up strongly
🔮 Crypto: Up

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

Japanese stocks continue their steep decline fall, the Yen continues to rally as traders expect the Bank of Japan will exit it’s longtime negative rate policy this month.

📷 Snapshot

Daily

Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.

• Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4632.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

4-Hour

4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.

• Closest Support and Resistance: Support at 4580, resistance at 4642.

• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.

🔍 Key Resistance Levels:

• 4755: Long-term target, significant in current market context.

• 4680-4685: Crucial for validating bullish trend strength.

• 4658: First major breakout zone.

• 4642-4645: Key current market zone.

• 4620-4625: Potential for breach due to significant basing.

🔍 Key Support Levels:

• 4573 & 4580: Significant resistance-turned-support zone.

• 4556-4558: Indicating a choppy trading range.

• 4540-4542: Acting as support post breakout.

• 4514 & 4497: Important back-testing zones.

• 4450: Immediate backtest point post-CPI announcement.

📉 Support Levels

• Major: 4556, 4539-42, 4520, 4496, 4463, 4450, 4431, 4408, 4389

• Minor: 4548, 4530, 4524, 4512, 4507, 4485, 4475, 4443, 4436, 4418, 4414, 4399

📈 Resistance Levels

• Major: 4573, 4580, 4590-93, 4618-22, 4640-42, 4657, 4680-84, 4711, 4727, 4747, 4755

• Minor: 4565, 4597, 4609, 4633, 4648, 4666, 4693, 4704, 4722, 4739-41

📝 Trading Plan

• Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above key supports and breaching resistances, particularly at 4620-4625 and 4658, suggests a continuation of the bullish trend.

• Bearish Scenario: A reversal below key supports, notably below 4556, could signify a shift to bearish sentiment.

💡 Wrap Up

In conclusion, last week was good for the market with a bullish trend. However, some hangover is likely today, and the market will most likely be waiting for CPI and FOMC releases to commit to further moves. As long as 4647-4540 holds on dips, the market can continue the path higher to 4660, 4667, and 4685 target. If 4640 fails, we test 4624, potentially leading to a sell-off.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.