1/2 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan

📊 Market Sentiment: Cautiously Watchful

The market has shown signs of strain under recent volatility, breaking through several key support levels such as 4795-98. Focus is now sharply on 4777, a pivotal line that must hold to prevent further bearish momentum. Traders are approaching the market with a blend of caution and vigilance, balancing optimism with the readiness to adapt to downward trends.

📝 Recap: Steady Above Support

In the latest session, the market continued its bullish trend until a breakdown at 4828 signaled potential weakness. Despite the noise typically associated with year-end trading, the market has been confined within a broad range since mid-December, with most activity between 4795 and 4838 being considered noise. The loss of support at 4828 introduces a note of caution into the previously bullish narrative.

🌜 The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up strongly
🧐 Yields: Up significantly
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

• J.P. Morgan's 2024 Economic Outlook: Anticipates a slowdown but not a recession, with potential rate cuts on the horizon.

• Global Economic Growth Projections: Expectations of a global slowdown to 2.6% in 2024 with mild recessions possible in Europe and the UK.

• Wall Street Optimism: Wall Street remains optimistic into 2024, despite changes in EV tax credits.

• China's Economic Moves: Coal tariffs restoration and a rise in iron ore prices following economic strengthening pledges.

• CFOs' Outlook for 2024: Preparation for a year of strategic challenges and anticipation of shifts in investment strategies.

• Oil at Sea: Oil surges due to escalating tensions in the Red Sea, triggered by Iran deploying a warship to the region. This follows the sinking of Houthi boats by the US, which had fired upon US warplanes defending a Maersk container ship from their attack.

📷 Snapshot

Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a neutral to bearish sentiment.

4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55 indicates a bearish sentiment.

📉 Support Levels

• Major Supports: 4816 (major), 4808, 4795-98 (major), 4777 (major) down to 4656-58 (major).

• Notable Support: 4829-31 and 4795-98 are critical, with a focus on 4795-98 for potential bullish defenses.

📈 Resistance Levels

• Major Resistances: 4834, 4838, up to 5011 (major).

• Key Resistance: 4829 is significant as it triggered the recent breakdown, watching for its role in potential future movements.

📝 Trading Plan

Levels:

• Immediate Support (4-Hour): 4777 (recent low)

• Immediate Resistance (4-Hour): 4819 (recent high)

• Immediate Support (Daily): 4777 (recent low)

• Immediate Resistance (Daily): 4828 (recent high)

Bull Case: For a bullish trend, 4777 must hold. Success here targets 4840+ and 4860-63. Watch for reversals at 4777.

Bear Case: Bears gain if 4777 breaks, leading to potential short positions. Risk management is crucial.

Today's Outlook: Monitor 4777 for market direction. Strategy adaptability is key.

Disclosure

This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.