11/17 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day Ahead

SPDR S&P 500 FUTURES ESZ2023 & SPY ETF - Market Update

Author

Jonathan
November 17, 2023

🔄 Recap

This week's market activity showcased the transition between trend and consolidation phases. Friday exhibited a strong uptrend, while Monday shifted to a consolidation mode. Notably, the breakout from the downtrend channel and CPI data fueled a significant rally. However, the consolidation session resumed post-rally, raising questions about a potential pullback.

📈 The Markets Overnight

  • Asia: Mixed performance.

  • Europe: Strong upward movement.

  • US Index Futures: Mixed strength but generally up.

  • Crude Oil: Price increase.

  • Dollar: Slight decrease.

  • Yields: Marginal decline.

  • Crypto: Mixed trends.

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

Yesterday, President Biden signed a temporary government spending bill, preventing a government shutdown. This move has implications for market dynamics.

Snapshot

Daily

4-Hour

🔍 Key Structures

  • The ES has entered a post-trend consolidation phase, with key structures ranging from 4507-10 to 4543+.

  • The market is currently in "Mode 2," characterized by basing, chop, and pattern formation.

  • The current pattern forms a bull flag with a 60% upside resolution bias.

📉 Support Levels

  • Major: 4507, 4484-86, 4445, 4418-24.

  • Minor: Various levels between 4507 and 4418.

📈 Resistance Levels

  • Major: 4625, 4556-58, 4543.

  • Minor: Levels ranging up to 4543.

📝 Trading Plan

  • Supports: Focus on 4520, 4514, 4507-10, 4485-87, 4444.

  • Resistances: Watch for 4524, 4535, 4543, 4557.

  • Bull Case: Maintain control above 4507 for an upward trend.

  • Bear Case: A breakdown below 4507 could lead to a short-term dip.

  • Strategy: Emphasis on level-to-level trading within the 4507-4535 range.

🔚 Wrap Up

As we approach today's trading session, the focus remains on the 4507-10 support level and the 4535-40 resistance zone. With the market in a consolidation phase, traders should be prepared for choppiness and focus on level-to-level trading strategies. Remember, today is OPEX Friday, so expect pinning around key levels and limited follow-through on movements.

Stay informed, trade smart, and let's navigate the markets together.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.