11/1 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead

Recap

This week began with ES breaking the deepest sell cycle of 2023, which saw 8 of the last 9 trading days red before Monday. The market finally capitulated and put in a green day Monday, followed by another green day Tuesday. This was in line with my plan for the week, which was to get long when 4153-47 reclaims. We reclaimed this level on Monday, back-tested, and have been moving up since then.

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up slightly, volatile
🔮 Crypto: Up slightly

Major Global Catalysts

• FOMC day! US Treasury, FOMC, Jay Powell, and macro-economic data in focus today.

Snapshot

Daily

4-Hour

Key Structures

There are several key structures and levels to note in the current market landscape. These include 4280, 4247-50, 4230, 4203, 4154-57, and 4113. Each of these levels represents critical resistance or support points that will play a significant role in determining market direction.

Support Levels

4203-05, 4190, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4154-57, 4147, 4135, 4125, 4113, 4103, 4090, 4075-80, 4064, 4055-60, 4043, 4025-30, 4011, 4000-4005, 3987, and 3976-79.

Resistance Levels

4247-50, 4262, 4268, 4277-79, 4290, 4297, 4302-05, 4314, 4322, 4336, 4341, 4350-55, 4366, 4376, 4381, 4387.

Trading Plan

Given the volatility and complexity of FOMC days, my strategy is to size down and focus on failed breakdowns. I am looking for a level/key low to flush, trap, reclaim, then I get in. I will be trading the plan below, level to level, one move at a time. The bull case remains in play as long as we are above 4154-57, with 4247-50 being the obvious magnet. The bear case begins on the fail of 4154-57, with a new low down to 4112 quite likely if that support goes.

Wrap Up

Today is FOMC day, which is notoriously the most volatile, complex, and defining day of the year. It is essential to be reactive and not to predict the action in advance. 4213-4215 was a big resistance that cleared, as seen in the 4-hour chart. My lean is we can defend 4180 on any flushes then head to 4250 target. However, I will react to whatever path price chooses - I follow price, not tell it where to go.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.