10/18 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day Ahead

Recap

This trend continued yesterday as the ES continued to build a base between 4360 and 4410-20. Despite a lucrative run today, ES has ultimately been displaying a lot of volatility to go nowhere, as we continue to base in the 4410-20 to 4360s range. This will inevitably result in a large trend move. But in which direction?

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Mixed

Major Global Catalysts

• Markets nervous as Israel-Hamas war intensifies, Biden visits Israel, and Jordan cancels planned summit with Biden and Arab leaders.

• Euro area inflation declines.

Snapshot

Daily

4-Hour

Key Structures

Some big-picture structures/levels that are notable from highest to lowest include 4478-85, 4418-24, 4375-67, 4336, and 4327. These are not comprehensive and are simply major structures to take note of, and they are not predictive.

Support Levels

4390-93 (major), 4375 (major), 4367, 4355, 4343 (major), 4335 (major), 4327, 4314, 4299-4302, 4288 (major), 4278, 4269-70 (major), 4263 (major), 4255, 4244, 4224-27 (major), 4212, 4205-08 (major).

Resistance Levels

4403, 4408 (major), 4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439 (major), 4443, 4452-55 (major), 4462, 4471, 4478 (major), 4485 (major), 4496, 4505-07 (major), 4515, 4526, 4532 (major).

Trading Plan

We remain in a total chop zone, and I consider everything between 4418 and 4367-75 as being pure noise. It is not hard to trade - as long as you do not over-trade. Take your level-to-level piece and quit for the day. 4390-93 is first support and we are here as of writing. This is very well tested now. One could bid it at your own risk, or safer is to wait for it to flush and reclaim something like test 90 and pop above 93.

Wrap Up

In summary for today: We remain in chop and 4418-4367 is total noise and the action inside it is not predictable. My general lean is that as long as 4367 keeps holding though, ES can fill out this range more then attempt a break out to 4418, 4439, 4452-55. Ideally for bulls, 4390 can hold before this, but it is not fully necessary. If 4367 fails, we should see a good sell that sees 4342 at minimum.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.